Charlotte Hornets: Lose to Win?

Dec 23, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard Nicolas Batum (5) passes the ball as he is defended by Boston Celtics guard forward Evan Turner (11) during the second half of the game at Time Warner Cable Arena. Celtics win 102-89. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 23, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard Nicolas Batum (5) passes the ball as he is defended by Boston Celtics guard forward Evan Turner (11) during the second half of the game at Time Warner Cable Arena. Celtics win 102-89. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Charlotte Hornets finish out their season by taking on the Orlando Magic and a shot at the 5th seed, but do they want it?

For the Charlotte Hornets it has all come down to this. One game to try and improve their playoff positioning. They got the win over the Celtics to tie them with Boston in the standings. Miami and Atlanta sit a mere game above. The Hornets cannot climb all the way to three no matter the result.

To get out of sixth, the Hornets would need the Heat to beat the Celtics on the road. This would allow the Hornets to jump out to fifth place, but that would set up a first round matchup with the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have the best record against the Hornets of all possible first round playoff matches.

Scenario 1: Boston Loses, Charlotte Wins, Atlanta Wins = Hornets 5 seed

The Heat-Celtics matchup is the key to the Hornets fate. While the Hornets could jump the Celtics with a Celtics loss, the tiebreakers will tell the tale in the event of a Boston win. A Celtics win (assuming Hornets win) would place Charlotte, Boston, and Miami at 48 wins. The first tiebreaker is the mini-conference.

Scenario 2: Boston Wins, Charlotte Wins, Atlanta Wins = Hornets 5 seed

Charlotte vs Boston: 1-2

Charlotte vs Miami: 2-2

Miami vs Boston: 0-3 Projected

Charlotte (3-4), Boston (5-1), Miami (2-5)

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So there are now two scenarios where the Hornets reach the 5th seed, a Boston loss and a three way tie with Boston and Miami. In the first scenario the Hornets face the Hawks. The second scenario is kinder because the Hornets would face the Celtics.

However that is not the only thing that could happen. Atlanta could lose to the Washington Wizards and that would bring them into a tie with the Hornets (assuming Hornets win). The Hawks hold the tiebreaker and would get the fourth seed.

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  • Scenario 3: Boston and Atlanta both Lose, Charlotte Wins = Hornets 5 seed

    A Hawks loss and a Boston win would throw us into the four way tie. The four way tie scenario would result in a bigger mini-conference.

    Charlotte vs Boston: 1-2

    Charlotte vs Miami: 2-2

    Miami vs Boston: 0-3 Projected

    Atlanta vs Charlotte: 3-1

    Atlanta vs Miami: 1-3

    Atlanta vs Boston: 3-1

    Charlotte (4-7), Boston (6-4), Miami (5-6), Atlanta (7-5)

    Scenario 4: Boston Wins, Atlanta Loses, Charlotte Wins = Hornets 6 seed

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  • So none of these scenarios get the Hornets to the fourth seed at this late date. If the Hornets are going to be on the road anyway, they need to ask a question. Can they determine their first round opponent? Not really. The Hornets would prefer scenario 2 to the others because they would play Boston instead of Atlanta.

    The Hornets could decide which side of the bracket they are in relative to the 1 and 2 seeds however. The 5 seed theoretically plays the 1 seed in the second round. That is the Cavs. The 6 seed lines up with the 2 seed in the second round. That is the Toronto Raptors. The Hornets could lose tonight and automatically end up on Toronto’s side of the bracket.

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    If the Hornets did lose, then the three seed could turn out in different ways. Miami could claim it with a win against Boston. Atlanta could claim it with a win and a Miami loss. The Miami scenario might be the friendliest to the Hornets because they split the season series with Miami.

    Scenario 5: Hornets Lose, Miami Wins = Hornets 6 seed

    Which leads me to the odd conclusion that the Hornets should lose tonight against the Magic. It gives them the greatest chance of the friendliest matchup and it delays a meeting with LeBron and the Cavaliers until the conference finals.

    Next: Charlotte Hornets Playoff Predictions

    The Hornets are holding Batum out of the Magic game tonight, but the Hornets should win regardless. Unless of course they do the strategically smart thing and lose. My guess is that won’t happen. If the Hornets wanted to maneuver based off being in the sixth seed, they would have lost to Boston.