Duke Blue Devils: The Youth Movement May Not Be Over
The Duke Blue Devils have a succession crisis. The Duke Blue Devils have always had a succession crisis.
This state of affairs is turning almost Orwellian for the Duke Blue Devils. Yes, they are losing much of their roster. They simply do not care, because they will infuse it with new blood and do all over again. They are caught in the Kentucky loop except without the John Calipari part.
Lose Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker? Fine, meet Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Grayson Allen.
Lose Okafor, Jones, and Winslow? Fine, meet Luke Kennard and Brandon Ingram.
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Lose Ingram? Fine, meet Harry Giles, Marques Bolden, Jayson Tatum, and Frank Jackson.
Lose Giles, Tatum, and Kennard? Fine, meet Wendell Carter, Gary Trent, and Alex O’Connell.
Each of those Duke teams were expected to contend or perhaps do more than that. The Okafor crew won the national title. The next crew will be expected to contend too, but the there is a trick with them. We don’t even know who the full crew is yet.
Duke opened up a lot of scholarships this past season. Giles, Tatum, and Kennard have all gone to the draft (3). Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones graduated (2). Sean Obi and Chase Jeter transferred (2). That’s seven openings and only three have been filled so far. It is almost certain that the Duke 2017 class will not end with Carter, Trent, and O’Connell.
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It is April, though, not November. The pool has largely been drained, but the McDonalds All America game and other high school showcases are being dominated by the unsigned and some of them are big time talents.
Need shot blocking post play with a great name to boot? Try Mohammed Bamba, the number two center in the country. Remember there is time for Bolden off the bench.
Not sold on consistent point guard play from the likes of Jackson (just like you weren’t sold on Derryck Thornton)? How about the number one point guard recruit in the county, Trevon Duvall.
Miss Tatum’s electric play as a small four man? Or want to see what he would have looked like at the three spot all year? Then why not take a flyer on Kevin Knox, the number 2 small forward in the country. Like Ingram did, he is also looking at Chapel Hill – wouldn’t it sting if he also chose the Dark Blue side?
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Conceivably Duke could sign ALL of them. They just have to fight off Kansas and Kentucky for most of them.
Coach Mike Krzyzewski traditionally likes a tight rotation of about seven guys. He’ll expand it if he has more talent, but it always seems to get smaller as the year goes on. Could he manage a team with six freshmen of some talent and the leftovers from this year? Yes, yes he can.
First let’s look at the mythical rotation – Bamba-Carter-Knox-Allen-Duvall as the starting five. Grayson and the four freshmen horsemen. That might be the best signal yet that Allen should just go ahead and leave. Bolden-Jackson-Trent come off the bench. Believing Trent signed up for bench duty is laughable, and might be the best case against not signing Knox. O’Connell could be redshirted or see spot duty as the lowest ranked freshman in the group.
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That talent is crazy, right out of the Kentucky book that we thought was so novel over the past few years. My guess is won’t happen that way unless Allen leaves. If he stays, then we get Captain Allen back surrounded by impressionable freshmen. If he leaves then you could conceivably play Knox and Trent together.
Duke will probably make their biggest pushes on Bamba and Duvall. They offer the most certain upgrades to the roster’s skillset. Coach K will probably also make one Justin Watts-type signing to bring in a lower rated player with a skill that he thinks he can use. Duke’s Scout page oddly mentions a Rotarius Ware, a 6’1” guard who likes Duke, LSU, and the Mississippi schools. He is a three star recruit.
There is also a four star point guard named Tremont Waters that could be the backup plan if Duvall goes elsewhere. With the scholarship flexibility, K could bring him in anyway, but that would lead to a minutes crunch with Jackson. So Duke is almost guaranteed to sign a point guard before the fall semester starts.
Next: Kennard to Add to Turnover
Whatever the number, it won’t change the transformation that Duke has undergone in recent years. It is now a reload every year kind of team where talent development takes a back seat to simple talent. It is weird to think of a Coach K team this way, by K is adaptable and hasn’t gone forty years of coaching doing exactly the same thing every time.