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Duke Blue Devils: Are They One Seed Material?

By John Woodcock

Mar 11, 2017; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Duke Blue Devils players react to a foul call during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the ACC Conference Tournament Final at Barclays Center. Duke Blue Devils won 75-69. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 11, 2017; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Duke Blue Devils players react to a foul call during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the ACC Conference Tournament Final at Barclays Center. Duke Blue Devils won 75-69. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Duke Blue Devils are the ACC Tournament Champions. Did they clear the bar to be a one seed in the NCAA Tournament?

Are the Duke Blue Devils worth a one seed? This question has been drifting around the sports world as we all prepare for the Selection Special later today. As with many others, I have been of two minds about this since the beginning of the season.

In my predictions for 2017, I identified the Blue Devils as likely to sweep the season series with the Tar Heels, not win the ACC Tournament, and use their momentum to gain a one seed and win the national title. Obviously the road to get here was different than I guessed at, but Duke is right on schedule for much of this plan.

I also think if Duke does not get a one seed, it will be better for them in the long run. The team’s early troubles were based on it being anointed at the beginning of the year. They bought into it and had to be dragged into the ACC season before changing their tune. There is still a danger that they will become entitled again if they are given the one seed.

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While we are at it, can we dispense with the idea that this has been Coach Krzyzewski’s best coaching job? He has arguably the most talented team in the country and he finished fifth in the regular season of the ACC with it. His 2010 title team will always be the best coaching job because that was when he got the most done with the least to work with.

Back to one seed talk. Duke has eight losses, unprecedented for a one seed. Honestly this is not that big of a deal. The country had a lot of parity and Duke’s losses came from the grind of the ACC and Kansas. Some years this kind of thing is bound to happen. The worst loss is a two point loss to NC State at home. This particular year that is pretty bad.

Duke Blue Devils Basketball
Duke Blue Devils Basketball /

Duke Blue Devils Basketball

Duke usually does a good job of scheduling low major teams that end up winning their conferences. That helps their RPI and SOS later on in the seeding process. This year they did not get much help from those teams at the bottom of their schedule.

However Duke holds a number of wins against the best competition. That includes two against UNC, two against Notre Dame, one against Louisville, one against Florida, one against Florida State, and one against Virginia. Of those the two against UNC are probably the most important.

That is because North Carolina will likely be one of the schools the Blue Devils are measured against. The Tar Heels have one fewer loss, and they were the unquestioned regular season winners of the ACC. Duke managed to do things over four days, but the Heels managed to do things over the weeks of the regular season.

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The Heels counter argument to Duke’s 2-1 record against them is that they were missing Isaiah Hicks in the first game and Joel Berry in much of the second. If the Tar Heels had a healthy Kenny Williams, would we be having this argument either? The missing Hicks is obviously the important factor here if the Heels get the spot.

The Tar Heels have two bad losses, Indiana and Georgia Tech. They also have a close loss to Kentucky without Theo Pinson. Their Maui win over Wisconsin will look better if the Badgers win the Big Ten Tournament later today.

Is Duke good enough for a one seed, yes. So is North Carolina. Both cannot get one. In this situation I believe that either could be rewarded and I would be fine with it. However I believe that the team that gets a two seed will be the more dangerous team come tourney time.

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