Duke Blue Devils: Be Careful What You Learn
The Duke Blue Devils did not suddenly turn on some switch to beat the Tar Heels last night, instead there were clear factors.
I watched the Duke Blue Devils beat the North Carolina Tar Heels yesterday in the ACC Tournament. So color me surprised to read some analysis from that game. The story was that Duke had somehow found itself. The light had come on for Harry Giles. Amile Jefferson had navigated the ins and outs of contesting the Tar Heel bigs. The problem was that I clearly missed that.
I saw the same Duke team that I had seen all season. A Duke team that relies on wing scoring to win games. A Duke team that needs of three of the Luke Kennard, Grayson Allen, Jayson Tatum, and Frank Jackson group to score twenty points each to win a game. Duke never did anything different in this game that they had not done in the past.
Giles made a block, got an alley-oop, and made free throws. I missed the part where he suddenly became self-aware.
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Jefferson and the Duke post defense gave up thirty-eight points to Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks. Jefferson fouled out by the way. Clearly he won that matchup.
The story of the Duke victory really comes down to a few things. One, the Tar Heels were called for more fouls and Duke’s foul shooting kept them in the game and later kept them ahead. Duke made thirty-three free throws in the game, five less points than Hicks and Meeks provided in the post. That made up for the lack of Duke post presence, not Jefferson’s defense.
That same element also came into play with the Tar Heel Senior Night victory, so it is a thing that Duke must do well. When Duke is fouled, they are almost always shooting something. It takes seven team fouls to reach the bonus. It’s a big difference if you have managed to get fourteen points on those fouls as opposed to zero.
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The second element was the breakdown of the North Carolina offense. This had little to do with Duke, really. It had to do with their point guard Joel Berry collecting four fouls before the twelve minute mark in the second half. Without Berry to run the offense, the Heels sputtered and Duke came back.
The one Heels player who could have averted the situation was Justin Jackson. Jackson did score fifteen points in the game, but his misses were uncharacteristic. He took floaters that were routine for him and simply blew them. There were also some threes he should not have taken, but that is the risk you run with a shooter. Jackson’s miscues were mostly self-inflicted.
There is the game right there. No Berry, no direction, and too many fouls. Allen, Kennard, and Tatum scoring threes is not irregular for Duke and they needed them, particularly Allen’s first half effort. However Duke teams that live and die by the three point shot have produced wildly different results. Those teams could win championships or lose to Lehigh. If the spigot ever gets turned off, there will be trouble.