Charlotte Hornets: Miami loss tightens the race
The Charlotte Hornets have regained the 5th seed in the standings due to an unexpected Miami loss to the Lakers.
No, the Charlotte Hornets did not play last night. They defeated the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday following the triple-double lead of guard Nicolas Batum. However, there were other games that were played last night that influenced the playoff race and some in big ways.
A couple of days ago, we examined the most likely outcome of the final stretch of the season. That analysis had the Hornets remaining in the sixth spot in the East. That analysis also pointed to a number of games that Miami, Boston, and Atlanta would lose before the final order was determined.
Last night saw all two of those teams lose. Atlanta lost to Toronto, which was predicted to happen. The Heat lost in overtime to the LA Lakers, which was not predicted. It is especially interesting since the Lakers were fighting the DeAngelo Russell taping story.
Boston is also coming off a loss, a predicted loss to the LA Clippers. Those results mean that the Hornets are once again tied with the Celtics and the Heat at 43-31 records. The Hornets sit in the 5th spot right now.
Now is not as important as the end of the season. In the model, Miami was supposed to gain the three seed while Atlanta, Boston, and Charlotte all finished tied with the Hornets losing the tiebreaker to both the Celtics and the Hawks.
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Now Miami has lost a game it should have won and its record in the model would decrease by a win. That would bring them into a four way tie for the third-six spots.
A bigger tiebreaker pool would be created. The Hornets are 2-2 against the Heat. The Heat are 3-1 against the Hawks. The Heat are a projected 0-3 against Boston. The new tiebreaker results would have Atlanta (7-5), Boston (7-3), Miami (5-6), and Charlotte (3-8).
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This scenario still does not promote the Hornets, but instead puts them up against the Boston Celtics (the new 3 seed). Atlanta would become the four and face Miami. So even with the Heat winning short of projections, the Hornets do not get out of sixth.
The nice thing about projections is that they are not real. The Hornets still have the ability to win games that they are projected to lose and it would only take one or two games to swing their way in order for them to be in a much better spot and ignore any tiebreaker scenario.
Next: Time to Get Behind Hornets
In fact they could start tonight by beating the 76ers again and seeing if any of their rivals follow the example of the Miami Heat and trip up somewhere along the way.