ACC Bowl Picture Projections: 11/21

The ACC bowl picture is starting to clear up. The Atlantic Coast Conference has thirteen potential tie ins not including putting a team in the playoff. Notre Dame can qualify for one of those spots as long as it is within one game of the team whose spot it would be taking. Bowls cannot take teams two wins worse than teams above it.

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Here the current list of ACC bowl eligible teams with a predicted record at finish:

Florida State: 11-0 (9-0)
Clemson: 9-3 (6-2)
Louisville: 8-4 (5-3)
Boston College: 7-5 (4-4)
NC State: 6-6 (2-6)
Georgia Tech: 9-4 (6-3)
North Carolina: 7-5 (5-3)
Duke: 9-3 (5-3)
Miami: 8-4 (5-3)

Projected Bowl Teams:
Virginia Tech: 7-5 (4-4)

Of course we need Notre Dame too:
Notre Dame: 8-4

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That means that Notre Dame can jump any ACC with nine wins or less. Which means anyone not named Florida State.

The ACC Bowls look like this
1-Orange Bowl
2-Russell Athletic Bowl (formerly Champs Sports)
3-Capitol One Bowl (if Orange Bowl chooses a Big Ten opponent)

Second Tier (Negotiate Amongst themselves for the next teams)
4-Belk Bowl
5-Gator Bowl (shared with Big Ten, 3 of 6 years)
6-Music City Bowl (shared with Big Ten, 3 of 6 years)
7-Sun Bowl
8-Pinstripe Bowl

Third Tier (Same deal with the remaining teams)
9-Beef O’Brady’s Bowl
10-Detroit Bowl
11-Military Bowl
12-Independence Bowl
13-Birmingham Bowl

Jan 3, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; The champion trophy is seen on stage after Clemson Tigers defeated the Ohio State Buckeyes 40-35 in the 2014 Orange Bowl college football game at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

So let’s work our way down the list. I am going to assume that the SEC does not get two teams in the playoff so that the Orange Bowl would pick an SEC squad over a Big Ten squad. I am not projecting the bowl opponents at this time, just the ACC schools and any extraneous factors.

1.FSU to the Playoff
2.Notre Dame to the Orange

Although the business relationship with the ACC could choose another pick, there is no team between Duke, Ga Tech, and Clemson that would bring more interest than Notre Dame and its tradition. Throw in the fact that there will probably be an SEC team like Ole Miss, Mississippi State, or Georgia to match them with.

3.Clemson to the Russell Athletic

No brainer here with Clemson’s following and record. Note that the Capitol One would not pick an ACC team in this scenario.

Dec 31, 2012; El Paso, TX, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets players including Chris Jackson (33) , Tevin Washington (13) , Orwin Smith (17) and Bryan Chamberlain (53) hold the Sun Bowl trophy after defeating the Southern California Trojans 21-7 in the 79th Sun Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Ivan Pierre Aguirre-USA TODAY Sports

4.Duke to the Sun Bowl
5.Louisville to the Music City
6.Georgia Tech to Pinstripe
7.Virginia Tech to Belk

Here’s where the negotiating gets interesting. Tech went Sun last year. North Carolina went Belk last year. The Sun Bowl then will have a choice of Duke or Miami. I think someone will convince them to take the Blue Devils. Louisville is proximate to Nashville, making that an easy ticket grab. Georgia Tech gets exiled to New York in order for them not to return to Charlotte. The Belk Bowl then grabs the Hokie fanbase over Miami.

8.Miami to Beef O’Brady’s
9.Boston College to Detroit
10.North Carolina to Military
11.NC State to Independence

I think this is how the bottom tier will play out, although Miami to St. Petersburg is not a lock. They would be just as natural to ship out to Shreveport, opening up the St. Petersburg bowl to one of the North Carolina schools.

So this is how I see the bowl picture as of right now. Obviously there are still games to played and teams could raise their profile. But if you are a Tobacco Road football fan, you might start looking at the price of hotels in El Paso, Annapolis, and Shreveport.

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