UNC vs. Miami Best Bet & Prediction for Monday, Feb. 26 (Trust Tar Heels' Defense)
By Joe Summers
The No. 10 North Carolina Tar Heels (21-6) host the Miami Hurricanes (15-13) as massive favorites Monday night at 7:00 PM EST.
North Carolina brings a two-game winning streak into the contest after an impressive defensive effort against Virginia, while Miami has six straight losses while failing to cover the spread in their last four.
That being said, the Hurricanes kept things close in a 75-72 loss just over two weeks ago. Can the Tar Heels put together a more dominant win tonight or will we see another tight game? Let's take a look at the latest odds before I give my best bet:
UNC vs. Miami Odds, Spread and Total
UNC vs. Miami Best Bet and Prediction
The Tar Heels are big 14.5-point favorites with -1400 moneyline odds and a total set at 154.5. Despite North Carolina's superior statistical profile, the Hurricanes have covered the spread in each of the last four matchups between these teams with two outright wins.
I'm a bit weary of the gigantic spread as a result, especially considering Miami was just a four-point underdog in that initial game on February 10th. Instead, I see value in taking the under.
North Carolina ranks 14th nationally in opponent effective field goal percentage (46%) but just 144th offensively (51.2%). They project the ball at a top-35 rate but rank outside the top 300 in turnovers forced, so points in transition will be hard to come by. Miami has a better offense than defense, but they're stellar at preventing free throw attempts while struggling to get to the line themselves.
Armando Bacot in No. 7 North Carolina’s win over Virginia Tech:
— Tar Heels of NYC (@TarHeelsofNYC) February 17, 2024
▫️25 PTS (11-16 FG)
▫️12 REB
▫️1 AST
▫️1 STL
▫️1 BLK
▫️3-3 FT
Dominant performance by the veteran big man. pic.twitter.com/pvOjjVShGP
Barring an exceptional shooting night, it's hard to see the score reaching 155. During this six-game losing streak, the Hurricanes are averaging just 63 points per game. North Carolina scores well at home, but I foresee them building a lead before coasting with a rivalry game against NC State set for Saturday.
The under is 8-3 in Miami's last 11 games and on a perfect 4-0 streak in meetings between these teams. Trust the Tar Heels' defense and take the under once again.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.