North Carolina A&T vs. Stony Brook Best Bet & Prediction for Thursday, Feb. 22

Bettors should expect a slugfest in this matchup
North Carolina A&T's defense helped the under hit in eight straight contests
North Carolina A&T's defense helped the under hit in eight straight contests /

The North Carolina A&T Aggies (7-20) have covered the spread in three of four as they go on the road to face the Stony Brook Seawolves (14-13) at 6:30 EST Thursday night.

North Carolina A&T is trapped at near the bottom of the Colonial Athletic standings with five straight losses, though the Seawolves lost two of their last three themselves.

Stony Brook is a massive favorite, though there's still betting value to be had in this contest. These teams haven't played each other since last year, but one trend has too much value to ignore. Let's take a look at the odds and break down the matchup.

North Carolina A&T vs. Stony Brook Odds, Spread and Total

North Carolina A&T vs. Stony Brook Best Bet and Prediction

This is a matchup of two offensively-challenged squads. The Aggies scored 54 or fewer points in three straight contests thanks to an offense that ranks 348th nationally in effective field goal percentage (44.7%), while the Seawolves are just 238th (49.3%) in the same category.

It's no surprise that 12 of North Carolina A&T's last 14 games went under the total, including eight straight. These teams have played each other three times over the last two years. The under hit in every game and I see a similar outcome unfolding tonight.

If you don't shoot well, the best ways to generate points are in transition off turnovers, free throws, and offensive rebounds. Good news for under bettors: neither of these teams score in those ways.

Both teams rank in the top 75 in offensive turnover rate and outside the top 200 in both defensive turnover rate and rebounding percentage. Regarding free throws, Stony Brook is 294th in offensive free throw rate (28.5%) and 28th in defensive free throw rate (26.4%), so they're rarely involved in games with a lot of points from the charity stripe.

The Seawolves shoot three-pointers at one of the lowest frequencies in the country, so I'm not worried about a shooting barrage either.

Unders have hit in eight straight North Carolina A&T games by an absurd average of over 18 points per game. Fade these offenses and take the under again tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.