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NC State Has Insane Underdog Value vs. Georgia Tonight

Georgia has just one pitcher left with an ERA under 5.00 for Monday's do-or-die Game 3

By Vinnie Portell

May 23, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack pitcher Sam HIghfill (17) celebrates with catcher Jacob Cozart (14) after closing out the top of the third inning against the Duke Blue Devils during the ACC Baseball Tournament at Truist Field. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-USA TODAY Sports
May 23, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack pitcher Sam HIghfill (17) celebrates with catcher Jacob Cozart (14) after closing out the top of the third inning against the Duke Blue Devils during the ACC Baseball Tournament at Truist Field. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-USA TODAY Sports / Scott Kinser-USA TODAY Sports
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Somehow, NC State vs. Georgia is the only Super Regional series to last until Monday, but that’s just fine for Wolfpack fans.

You can watch your team try to advance to the College World Series in primetime AND you’re in a great spot to cash in on it, too!

NC State is listed as a +120 underdog tonight against Georgia at DraftKings Sportsbook, but I think it’s actually the Bulldogs who should be the underdogs here.

NC State vs. Georgia College Baseball Odds

  • North Carolina State: +120
  • Georgia: -150

Georgia is Out of Pitching Options, Giving NC State Value

As is the case with the third game of a Super Regional, the top arms have already been used up. The problem for Georgia is that they only had one dependable starter in the first place!

Leighton Finley pitched well on Sunday as he scattered eight hits across 6 ⅔ innings, allowing just one run while striking out five in a decisive 11-2 win for the Bulldogs.

However, Finley emptied the tank as he lasted 107 pitches, so he’s certainly not coming out to the mound tonight.

That leaves… not much else.

Sure, Kolten Smith should be perfectly capable of pitching tonight after lasting just one inning on Saturday. 

But does Georgia really want to risk a repeat of that disastrous second inning? 

Smith made it through the first inning just fine before allowing eight runs in an eventual 11-run second inning that gave Georgia NO CHANCE to win the opening game of this series. The Bulldogs might be forced into throwing Smith again, and it’s clear that gives NC State an advantage. 

Even if Smith doesn’t start, the other options aren’t much better.

Each of the three Georgia pitchers following Smith on Saturday (Chandler Marsh, Jarvis Evans and Max DeJong) allowed 3+ base runners and 2 earned runs. Charlie Goldstein (4-1 w/ a 3.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP) would have been a good candidate, but he recently re-injured his arm and did not make Georgia’s Super Regional roster.

That leaves DJ Radtke (1-0 w/ a 3.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP) as the only remaining pitcher who has thrown at least 10 innings (15 ⅔) with an ERA under 5.00. 

If NC State can chase Georgia’s starter early, there should be PLENTY of chances to score on the relievers who follow. 

And the Wolfpack have a few more capable arms than the Bulldogs, too. NC State has already used Sam Highfill and Ryan Marohn, but still has three other pitchers (Jacob Dudan, Derrick Smith, Cooper Consiglio) with sub-5.00 ERAs.

Pick: NC State Moneyline (+120 Odds)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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