Adam Thielen Wildly Disrespected in Betting Odds After 1,000-Yard Season

Adam Thielen's receiving yards prop expects him to fall off a cliff in 2024-25
Adam Thielen's receiving yards prop expects him to fall off a cliff in 2024-25 / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Adam Thielen was the Panthers' No. 1 wide receiver last season, catching 103 passes for 1,014 yards as Bryce Young's clear top target. However, betting odds expect a massive drop-off for the veteran wideout after Carolina added Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette in the offseason.

Frankly, these odds are downright disrespectful and provide a huge value to bettors looking to take advantage of what should be a more explosive Panthers' offense.

While Thielen is 33 years old, he proved last year he's got enough left in the tank to make oddsmakers look foolish here. I'm pulling these odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and would be stunned if Thielen doesn't hit his over.

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop Odds Are Disrespectful


Receiving Yards Prop



Adam Thielen




Diontae Johnson




With respect to Johnson, who I believe will have a great season, this prop feels backwards. Thielen averaged just over 926 yards over his last eight seasons, clearing this prop every time except in 2019 when he only played 10 games due to injury.

He earned 137 targets last year. Even if Johnson and Legette siphon away targets, as they likely will, Thielen still almost doubled this receiving total last year! In what should be an improved passing offense, it'd almost require a significant injury for Thielen to miss out on this over.

These odds clearly imply that Johnson is the No. 1 receiver, but Thielen has an established rapport with Bryce Young that Johnson hasn't had the opportunity to create yet. At the least, I don't see nearly 300 yards separating the two if they both stay healthy.

If Thielen winds up with 600 yards, that'd be considered a disappointing season and fans would have major questions about his age moving forward. That poor production would still hit the over! Of all the Panthers' props currently available at sportsbooks, this is my favorite one by far.

Thielen's days as a top-tier receiver are over, but he's still a highly productive option in the passing game with plenty of experience. With Dave Canales calling the shots, expect Thielen to hit his over this season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.