3 Biggest Threats to Upset UNC in March Madness
By Joe Summers
2. No. 5 Saint Mary's
Perhaps no team should scare Tar Heels fans more than the Saint Mary's Gaels. They finished the season 26-7, winning the WCC, and have the ideal statistical profile to upset North Carolina.
The Gaels are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games and boast an elite defense, ranking third nationally in opponent effective field goal percentage (45.1%). Even worse, they're one of the only teams in the NCAA Tournament that have a legitimate rebounding advantage over the Tar Heels, with the third-best offensive rebounding percentage (39%) and second-best defensive rebounding percentage (77.6%).
🇱🇹 Augustas Marčiulionis gave his best against Gonzaga in the WCC final, leading Saint Mary's to a 69-60 win with an extremely steady hand (8 AST, 1 TO), buckets inside & out (13 PTS) and outstanding defense
— CBB Europe (@CBB_Europe) March 13, 2024
Tourney MVP honors for him after being crowned conference POY last week pic.twitter.com/Scv7rUAZsZ
While Michigan State is a good interior defensive team, Saint Mary's is a great one. They're fifth in opponent two-point shooting percentage (43.6%) but are built to funnel opponents inside. Opponents take only 29% of their shots from beyond the arc (8th-lowest), so Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram would need big games in the paint to propel North Carolina to victory.
They struggle to draw fouls, which could give the Tar Heels an edge, but the impressive rebounding statistics mitigate that advantage. With a bottom-30 pace in the country, the Gaels would use the same strategy as Michigan State by slowing the game down to prevent North Carolina's talent advantage from winning out in a larger sample size.
This is a potential Sweet 16 matchup that North Carolina wouldn't want any part of.