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UNC Wilmington Seahawks: Is Duke Upset Possible?

By John Woodcock

Mar 7, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks guard Denzel Ingram (10) shoots over Hofstra Pride guard Brian Bernardi (14) during the first half of the CAA conference tournament finals at Royal Farms Arena. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 7, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks guard Denzel Ingram (10) shoots over Hofstra Pride guard Brian Bernardi (14) during the first half of the CAA conference tournament finals at Royal Farms Arena. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /
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The UNC Wilmington Seahawks will play Duke in the ‘Second’ Round of the NCAA Tournament. What are their chances?

The UNC Wilmington Seahawks (25-7) won the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament to claim the lone birth to the NCAAs over Hofstra. Their reward was to miss the First Four games in Dayton and go right to the big bracket where they landed a thirteen seed.

What does a thirteen seed in the West get you these days? A first round matchup against the fourth seed Duke Blue Devils (23-10). So the Seahawks get a marquee matchup against one of the best programs in college basketball. For bonus points, they are normally located just a little ways up I-40.

So can the Seahawks score the upset on the Blue Devils? There are a couple of reasons to believe that they can.

One, Kevin Keatts is a Rick Pitino protégé at head coach. Keatts has built a style of play at Wilmington in his two years there that is a lot like the old Louisville teams he helped coach. They play a physical style and are not shy about using the press on opponents.

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    • Against Duke that means the possibility of an up tempo grinding game. That could hurt and fatigue a Duke team that runs a six man rotation mostly with Chase Jeter as the seventh man. It could also bother Duke when they go stretches without point guard Derryck Thornton.

    Louisville went 1-1 against Duke with better talent than Wilmington this year. That game saw Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen foul out. This brings up another point. Duke had trouble in the ACC Tournament with fouls. Their effort against Notre Dame floundered because Marshall Plumlee had to spend time in foul trouble. Can Wilmington test Plumlee?

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    Wilmington plays a smaller lineup without a true four man. That is much like Duke does, except Duke’s extra man is Brandon Ingram. C.J. Gettys is the Wilmington center and his stat line for the season is a 5 points and 5 rebounds per game guy. That does not sound like a natural threat to Plumlee down low. The next tallest man on the Wilmington roster is only 6’5”. There are times when Wilmington plays five guards.

    In the best case scenario for the Seahawks, this will be a game decided on the three point line where Wilmington has four shooters over 36% from distance for the year. The worst case scenario is if the game turns into a showcase for Duke’s Ingram against smaller matchups. Wilmington will win if Denzel Ingram has a better game than Brandon Ingram.

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    Fortunately we will not have to wait long for a result. Duke and Wilmington play tomorrow at 12:15 PM.

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