The country is wild for bracketology. Don’t believe me? Joe Lunardi, the ESPN bracketologist, follows the bracket for the entire year. You can see projections for next year’s tournament early in the fall. Like many projections, the only ones that truly seem to predict where teams will be are the ones made right before Selection Sunday. So Lunardi’s final picks are out and we can give them the consideration they deserve at this point.
Garnet and Cocky
The state of North Carolina will have an impact on the 2015 NCAA Tournament, but a slightly smaller footprint than people might have thought. As Michael Owens noted, the North Carolina Central Eagles will most likely not be in the tournament despite a dominating run in the MEAC. That is the danger of weaker conferences, but Central could make noise in the NIT where they will have a spot guaranteed.
So let’s look at the four schools and whether their Lunardi seeds are justified.
NC State Wolfpack – 8 Seed – 20-13 (10-8 ACC)
RPI: 41
SOS (Strength of Schedule): 6
Best Win: Duke (87-75)
Worst Loss: Boston College (63-79)
State’s record and resume puts them into the tournament field, and the eight or nine seed would make sense. The downside is the second round game against a one seed, but State does avoid the play-in games at the bottom of the tournament. For a team that was up and down, falling into the middle of the tournament field feels right.
Busting Brackets
Davidson Wildcats – 10 Seed – 23-7 (14-4 A10)
RPI: 33
SOS: 123
Best Win: VCU (82-55)
Worst Loss: St Joseph’s (70-75)
The difference between the Wildcats and the Wolfpack is level of opponent plain and simple. Davidson has outperformed expectations but their good wins are all in conference. Their losses to Virginia and North Carolina were not particularly close. They also did not win their conference tournament, which would have moved them up a line or possibly two. The 10-7 game is usually a good place to find upsets, so Davidson will have a good chance to advance in this spot, but it will depend on the two seed in their region to see if they can get further.
North Carolina Tar Heels – 4 Seed – 24-11 (11-7 ACC)
RPI: 12
SOS: 2
Best Win: Virginia (71-67)
Worst Loss: Pitt (76-89)
Look at the Schedule strength. North Carolina has been living in the top 20 of the top 25 for the last month or so and so was going to be on the 4/5 line. The win against Virginia probably brought them up to the four line. The best thing about being on the four line is avoiding Kansas (2 line) until a regional final. Don’t think the NCAA committee does not want the Dean Smith matchup of Kansas-UNC or SMU-UNC somewhere in this tournament.
FanSided
As a four seed, chalk says that North Carolina should be a Sweet Sixteen team. Of the one seeds that will likely be chosen, UNC would rather see Villanova in their region. They will not see Duke because of placement rules. Wisconsin and Kentucky offer hard matchups for the Heels.
Duke Blue Devils – 1 Seed – 29-4 (15-3 ACC)
RPI: 5
SOS: 9
Best Win: Virginia (69-63)
Worst Loss: Miami (74-90)
Duke is sitting on the border between the 1 seed and 2 seed. I personally prefer UVA to them, because I feel UVA has more consistent play and fewer question marks. Neither won the ACC Tournament, which did not help. Duke beat UNC twice (UVA 1-1), and beat UVA in the only time that they played. So I get why Duke is on the one line here. They won’t be lower than a two seed.
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You do not want to be a two seed because you might end up in Kentucky’s bracket, so being a one seed has its perks in other ways. I see Duke as fairly beatable if they run into the right opposition.