Sweet 16: Looking at the Wisconsin Badgers
The North Carolina Tar Heels defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday to reach the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. As a result they go to Los Angeles to face the Wisconsin Badgers and try to win the West Region.
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Wisconsin represents perhaps the hardest team that the Tar Heels could face, yes harder than Kentucky. Kentucky at least plays the same tempo that the Heels do. There is also game tape from earlier in the season to reference.
Wisconsin is the king of the current trends in college basketball. Slow patient basketball with grinding defense is the way of the Badger, taught by Bo Ryan himself. Ryan adds good shooting from the three point line. The Badgers therefore limit possessions in the game, hold for good shots, and try to maximize those shots.
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The result is that opponents are often forced to play at the pace and style that Wisconsin prefers. Those opposing teams may not be designed to do that. The Tar Heels are a good example. They play best when they are fast and loose. The ideal shot is the lay-up from good passing. This Tar Heel team in particular does not have an abundance of three point shooting.
Forced to play at Wisconsin’s tempo, the Heels are less likely to get their preferred shot and less likely to tire Wisconsin out with depth. They are more likely to have turnovers in a rigid half-court game.
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To make matters worse, Wisconsin uses a shooting power forward. Frank Kaminsky will be used to stretch the defense and drag one of the Carolina big men out of the paint. Notre Dame and Arkansas both tried to do this with the Heels too, but Pat Connaughton was not 6’10”. Going small worked against the Razorbacks and arguably could have changed the game against the Irish, but that is not really an option with Kaminsky.
Finally there is the injury factor. Every day that nothing is said about Kennedy Meeks, it seems more likely that he will miss the Wisconsin game if not the season. Information has been slow in coming partially to keep the Badgers in the dark. While Meeks is not a good match for Kaminsky on defense, his offensive presence cannot be matched by the other posts. They can simply not bully defenders as Meeks does.
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This is not to say that the Tar Heels are ‘doomed.’ Marcus Paige has played his biggest game in the tournament against the Razorbacks. Nate Britt finally seemed to work out his struggles in the same game. Tokoto had no turnovers in a game where turnovers were everywhere. The team is getting some of its best performances (Justin Jackson) at the right time.
For the Tar Heels to beat the Badgers, they need to break the Badger model. They need to impose their own pace and force the Badgers to play catchup. Then they need to deny the catchup attempt. Such a strategy worked against Virginia and almost worked against Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament.
The Heels also need to dominate the things they do well. The Heels need to rebound every Wisconsin miss. Tokoto needs to poke away a few balls. Paige needs to light up the second half. Finally the Heels must avoid turnovers at all costs. The Badgers can be had. It will take guts though.